Reduction in Net Immigration to Australia!

It has been noticed that there has been a reduction in the net immigration to Australia by another 170,000 on a yearly basis when compared to the peak rates which were noted about one and a half years ago. Considering the monthly data for its seasonality and volatility, it seems that the inflow of immigrants was the highest at around March or April in the previous year. The rate was about 30,000 a month. However, this number fell to about 16,000 a month. Keeping these figures in place, the annual rate comes to about 170,000.

According to the figures brought out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 43, 140 people came to Australia in August with an intention to permanently settle down or to reside for a more than a year. However, 30, 670 people also left the nation to live overseas either permanently or on a long term basis. The balance net inflow then comes to about 12, 470 when compared to the 20, 130 which was recorded last August.

For this year, the total inflow of migrants till August has been 222, 620 where as it was 337, 460 in the year till August 2009. This clearly shows a drop 114, 800 for one year to the next.

If this pace continues for the next few months, the net rate would come to almost half of what it was last winter by early next year. This clearly means limited potential for economic growth than what it is as of now. This is because there would be limited labour supply which clearly means slower growth and soon, the constraints would be realized.

However, when it comes to growth in employment, estimations have been made based on the assumed rate of growth in population. This assumed rate has not yet been adjusted as per the current decline.

Above all, this decline would mean impact on the housing market, less work for builders but at the same time, it would mean reduced pressure on the prices.

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